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The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it difficult to determine the size of the fall’s biggest games. For decades, the outcome of a regular-season game could feel final. Even if it wasn’t quite that way, it could be pretty close.
Not the case anymore.
After the number of undefeated teams dwindled to four in Week 11, we learned that using the phrase “if they win” is dangerous and that the SEC appears to be heading for a massive stalemate.
Beautiful 7
After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a crazy game with five touchdowns in the fourth quarter – four in the final 3:18 – Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed that his team was still alive in the Playoff race.
Coach Drinkwitz says tonight’s win was big because it keeps Mizzou in the playoff hunt pic.twitter.com/AG0nL3bW6K
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 10, 2024
“That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.
Real?
Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with – in alphabetical order – Alabama, Georgia, Ole ma’am, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Those six all landed in the top 16 of the CFP selection committee last week.
There are only two SEC games left that match up with one of these seven teams. Next week, Georgia will look to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. Texas goes to Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend.
Georgia had the chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin finally broke through with a top-five victory to stay very alive. Now the Bulldogs, the preseason No. 1 seed and favorite to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.
Unthinkable.
The Crimson Tide rolled by LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M determine their path to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.
As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, no one needs to apologize for going 7-2. Especially a program that doesn’t regularly produce double-digit winning seasons. The reality is that Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, is clearly seventh in the SEC playoff rankings.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Hurricane warning
No. 4 Miami had tempted fate and hoped for a quarterback Cam Ward to make the most of the last month and a half out of precarious situations. Four times in the last five games the Hurricanes have fallen behind, but Ward and their high-powered offense saved them and kept them undefeated.
Ward had no more magic against him in the second half Georgia Techand now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive week off. The Mustangs now sit alone atop the ACC standings.
Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That’s the ranking at the time of the game, meaning Georgia Tech has two of those wins after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 State of Florida in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early season upsets are not what they seem.
Yet that list also includes Kentucky about Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and of course Northern Illinois about Notre Dame. It nearly added Utah above No. 9 BYU later Saturday evening.
It’s been a fun season.
Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC Championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes end the season with games against Syracuse And Boston College – both very winnable. But so did Georgia Tech.
“We have a bye week with everything for us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.
The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in GT territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.
The bigger problem for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game has just been lost. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then look at the Big Ten, where the odds continue to rise that the four CFP candidates (Oregon, State of Ohio, Indiana, Penn State) will all win at least 10 regular season games.
If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they will likely do so after beating just one ranked team (Louisville).
That measurement can be a bit deceptive and arbitrary. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.
Still, the ACC moved closer to a one-bid league on Saturday.
2024 BYU = 2022 TCU
BYU’s undefeated season seemed to be over at quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked at his own goal line after a fourth down with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Cougars have avoided a few losses along the way at 9-0, but none was bigger than Saturday night’s escape against archrival Utah.
A holding penalty on the Utes ended what likely would have been a go-ahead sack, and the Cougars took their second chance, driving in the waning seconds to set up a game-winning field goal. The 11-point halftime deficit was the largest BYU has overcome since 2002 State of Utah.
“We won this match. Someone else stole it from us,’ Utah athletic director Mark Harlan told reporters. “This was not fair to our team. I am disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating tonight.”
Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan Post Game pic.twitter.com/eKjy4PpedU
— Elijah Grayson Murray (@elijahgmurray) November 10, 2024
Okay, then.
The Cougars remain alone in first place in the Big 12, just one game ahead Coloradowhich recorded its own come-from-behind victory on Saturday evening.
Indiana has already posted its best turnaround of the season, the perennial Big Ten doormat now competing for a conference title after going 3-9 last season. BYU isn’t quite that, but the Cougars went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12 last year and were picked to finish at the bottom of the conference again.
Sound familiar?
TCU followed a similar path to the College Football Playoff in 2022. These Cougars aren’t Hypnotoads, but they are definitely a vibration-based operation.
Big 12 spoiler
Kansas has had one of the most disappointing years in the country, starting the season ranked high and losing its first five FBS games, none by more than 11 points.
The Jayhawks have now won two of three, with only a two-point loss State of Kansas preventing a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and business virtually eliminated The state of Iowa of the CFP race with a 45-36 victory Saturday.
Kansas can continue to play spoiler for the next two weeks. The Jayhawks visit BYU next week and then host Colorado.
Keeping BYU out of the Big 12 championship game at this point will leave the Cougars with at least two losses. Avoiding that won’t be as easy as it might have looked a few weeks ago.
BYU goes to State of Arizona in two weeks. As good as Provo’s turnaround was, Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s was even better in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) is also still in the running for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
And BYU ends the regular season at home against Houstonthat has won three of the last four.
Tested Hoosiers
It took ten plays, but someone finally made Indiana go to work deep in the fourth quarter.
Indiana is 10-0 for the first time after beating the defending champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the worst offensive game of the season for the Hoosiers.
“I’m glad we won,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “I don’t like the way we played.”
10 games, 10 wins. pic.twitter.com/OU9Bi4I8Xi
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 10, 2024
Considering Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time against Michigan, I was pretty sure that sentence had never been uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.
Indiana gets a week off before playing Ohio State. It appears the Hoosiers have built up enough credit to weather a loss to the Buckeyes and reach the Playoff, but that strength of schedule metric still hangs like an anchor around Indiana. The Wolverines are now 5-5.
(Photo: Ed Zurga/Getty Images)